Modeling the Population Health Impacts of Heated Tobacco Products in Japan

Objective: We evaluated the potential population health impact of launching heated tobacco products (HTP) in Japan. Method: use a modeling approach to project effects HTP overall mortality up 2100 and compare those projections against baseline scenario based on smoking rates pre-HTP launch, ie, only. The model was informed using data from publicly available sources literature, including size, yearly deaths, prevalence with initial year 2004, births migration 2004 2065. Transitions between were estimated cross-sectional surveys Result: In worst-case scenario, gains would be seen HTPs risk about 50% lower than smoking. Assuming equal for dual smoking, need at least 10% achieve benefit by 2100. Potential reduction life-years lost introduction 13 million compared Conclusions: credible scenarios, substantial harm will follow